Don’t Panic!

Retirement Accts. Decimated, Layoffs Coming

Well, it was a tough weekend. After insurance giant AIG hinted that it might be heading for bankruptcy, investment bank Lehman Bros. went ahead and filed Chapter 11. Merrill Lynch grabbed at a $50 billion takeover from Bank of America, which is already regretting its takeover of the nation’s largest mortgage lender [Countrywide]. Stocks fell worldwide on Monday even after intervention from the Fed promising eased restrictions on emergency funds.

It’s not difficult to find gloom and doom on Wall Street today over how many jobs in the financial sector are going to be lost. Worse, that concern will in fact translate into a whole lot more jobs lost out in the real world where you and I live. Factories will be closed, inability to finance durable goods orders will exacerbate the problems, and GM is about to go under too. It ain’t even close to over yet, folks. If all you lose is your home, you’ll be among the lucky ones.

I’ll be posting more good information on stretching leftover dollars for those real people being harmed by all this, maybe even have something to say about the fact that there’s no gas in my region right now at all, leaving nothing to ration. Or tell you how I fare on my plan to sell my now-useless diesel ‘vintage’ Mercedes so I can buy a horse (have plenty of grass and kudzu). But in the meantime, best advice - if you’ve got gas - is to head directly to your regional farmer’s market and buy as much rice, other grains, fresh veggies and fruits as you can possibly afford. I’ll talk a bit about how to preserve it through the winter too, since it’s not really that hard.

I will also start posting information about growing some of your own food, even in the winter. There will be lots of links to great sources for information on these strategies too, so please stay tuned. The best advice I can give to people who end up here after searching something on Google because they’re just now joining our Shoestring Budget ranks, is…

Don’t Panic.

All you really have to do is survive. The future is the future, it’ll bring its own problems and opportunities. Right now you just need to “ride it out” in one piece (and all of a piece family-wise). Money’s just paper at this end of real life, you CAN learn to make do on much less of it. And who knows? Once you’re out the other end of the tunnel, you might even find that you can live a much happier, fulfilled and truly shared life without all that much of it. It’s a good lesson to learn. It puts things in perspective, something this modern world could use more of.

Links:

Lehman Brothers collapse stuns global markets
Lehman Files for Bankruptcy, Merrill Sold, AIG Seeks Cash
Wall St.’s Turmoil Sends Stocks Reeling
Credit Crunch: How to Survive the Recession
20 Ways to Live on Almost Nothing
Uninsured? More Ways to Survive

Filed under Bank Failures, Bankruptcy, Economic Prognostication, Economic Recession, Farmer's Markets, Surviving | Comment (0)

Rich Man’s Burden, Poor Man’s Bane

While those of us in the less-than 95th percentile of the American income scale celebrated a long Labor Day weekend with family and friends, the 2008 Presidential race heated up, took a bizarre turn, and looks more like a “North Country”-like sit-com every day. The New York Times published some Labor Day editorials that are as remarkably honest as they are politically timely in this era of double-digit inflation for basics like food and fuel, the mortgage crisis tossing millions of families out on the streets, and ever-faster distancing between ‘rich’ and ‘poor’ that can positively cause major depression if you think too much about it.

Why? Because things are getting worse, not better. Our shoestring budgets can no longer be thought of a a temporary condition, but something we’ll have to work with all our lives. This is what op-ed contributor Dalton Conley commented on Tuesday in his opinion piece, Rich Man’s Burden.

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Filed under Economic Prognostication, Education, Holidays, Income Inequality, Inflation, Politics | Comment (0)

We Predict Inflation Better than Experts

A very interesting piece of economic research appeared this week in ScienceDaily news service from the department of economics at Kansas State University, entitled Consumers Can Predict Inflation as Well as Professional Economists. This of course will come as no surprise to regular people, for whom economist’s double-talk is often seen as deliberately vague and couched in jargon that has no application to those in the lower echelons of economic stratification in this society.

Turns out that the actual price of milk and bread and gasoline can alert the average citizen of increasing inflation rates quickly and surely, and their predictions will then translate into how the family budgets their spending. Apparently one doesn’t need an Ivy League degree and a 5-figure Wall Street income to figure out that things cost more today than they did yesterday. Who would have thought such a thing?

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Filed under Debt, Economic Prognostication, Inflation | Comment (0)

Good News? Globalization Slows Down

Transportation Costs Hit the ‘New World Order’

The Sunday New York Times offered an in-depth analysis on August 3 by Larry Rohter entitled, Shipping Costs Start to Crimp Globalization.

A decade ago oil was going for $10 a barrel and “outsourcing” manufacturing facilities and jobs to low-wage regions of the Third World began to hit American labor hard. We were all told we must simply adjust to a whole new, world-wide way of doing things, and damn the torpedoes that were decimating labor unions and sending millions of skilled Americans into the minimum wage ranks of burger-flippers and WalMart greeters just to (not quite) get by.

Oil is trading today [Aug. 4] for just over $121 a barrel, down quite a bit from just a month ago when speculators bid it up to $138. The drop is attributed to falling demand as conservation kicks in on the user front. $4 a gallon gasoline and $5 a gallon diesel has cut into fuel consumption big time this summer as regular people choose not to drive if they don’t have to, and transportation fleets pool schedules to ensure their trucks, trains and ships aren’t wasting a drop. According to Rohter the big ocean-going container fleets have slowed down 20% to save on fuel costs, which translates into substantially slower turnaround on the goods.

We all recognize that greatly increased shipping costs as reflected in the upside-down cost of diesel fuel (remember when diesel was always a dollar LESS than gasoline?) must translate into an increase in the price of everything that moves by means of diesel fuel. This means inflation in every sector, at a time of stagnant wages, joblessness and increasing costs of basic transportation, heating and cooling for the average citizen.

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Filed under Bank Failures, Economic Prognostication, Economic Recession, Fuel, Inflation, Transportation | Comment (0)

Roundup: Those Silly Financial Advisors

As the economy continues to slide ever deeper into recession - dragging the entire civilized world along with it in one spectacular leap into the great oil scam abyss - we get the mainstream media’s too-cute economic pundits telling us things designed to make us laugh out loud. Which could actually be semi-useful, considering how many neurosciencey-type researchers keep telling us how much humor can help us conquer stress and depression and other unavoidable side-effects of living in interesting times. But only if you actually read their sage advice *as* comedy, meant to lighten your mood.

For instance, the jokers over at CNN Money have some real thigh-slappers on what we regular people should do ‘just in case’ the worst happens (the whole house of cards comes tumbling down). We need to beef up our “emergency funds,” we’re told, as if we had more cash to stash in zip lock bags in the freezer than the two to three weeks’ worth (which we’d still have to scrimp to save up) advised in the post Hold On: The Ride’s Just Starting.

We are told that in the face of bank failures, job losses and investment wipeouts that the “standard advice” is to keep at least three months’ worth of living expenses ’socked away’ if there are two wage earners in the family, six months’ worth if there’s just one breadwinner. Surely it can’t be that difficult to just take ten or twenty thousand dollars out of your bank or investment portfolio in small bills and find a safe place in the house to hide it from the teenagers, right? Hahahaha. That’s a good one.

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Filed under Alternative economics, Economic Depression, Economic Prognostication, Economic Recession, Humor | Comments (4)

The Poor Get Poorer Still

Last month I asked the question, Is It Depression Yet? and linked quite a few opinions of economic pundits about when the recession no one in DC cares to admit we’re in will turn into a full-fledged depression.

In going down the list of ominous signs that we’re going down for the third time, the key ingredient apart from a burst credit bubble was rising oil prices. Well, this last weekend gasoline went over $4 a gallon, and diesel was pushing $5. So while families and workers in cities can start taking mass transit to work and school and just stay home this summer instead of driving to the Grand Canyon, the price of diesel - which runs all our shipping fleets, trucks and trains - is going to cause swift inflation in the price of food as well as everything else that is transported from here to there. It is no longer a wild conspiracy theory that oil will go to $200 a barrel, now projected by the end of this year and possibly right around election time. It could hit $150 this month and no one will be shocked.

Thus I read with interest an article in the June 9 New York Times entitled Rural U.S. Takes Worst Hit as Gas Tops $4 Average. A survey by the Oil Price Information Service did a survey which showed that the price of gasoline has its biggest impact on rural areas, particularly in the Southeast, and that for the people euphemistically called the “working poor” the cost of just getting to work and to the store is quickly eating as much of their income as food and housing. Since their incomes are not rising and aren’t likely to rise, the situation for people in rural areas of the south, New Mexico, Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas will soon become a choice between food and transportation.

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Filed under Alternatives, Brand New Used, Economic Prognostication, Economic Recession, Energy, Fuel, Surviving, Transportation | Comments (8)

Is It Depression Yet?

As we start moving into summer I thought it might be interesting to take a look at some economic predictions made way back in 2007 by an “informed” opinionator over at Sustainable Living’s Natural Hub, a Q&A piece entitled Timing of a depression triggered by high oil prices.

An Overview of unfolding recession as the oil economy fades was published in 2006 explaining the various factors that would mark a worldwide recession due to increasing oil prices. Some of its indicators have long since come and gone, others have been with us for years already, and some of the predictions have come true in these last few months. For those of us living in the real world, recession and ’stagflation’ have been facts of life for years despite the mainstream news media’s reluctance to actually use the word when reporting on where speculators have taken futures on oil and food supplies lately. They won’t use the ‘D’ word either [depression], but here’s a list of signs that it’s already upon us.

Sign 1. “For there to be a deep recession, there first has to be a credit bubble - a high level of personal indebtedness in the community.”

Well, this one’s sure a no-brainer! Hopefully most readers of this blog have made real efforts to minimize or get out from under personal debt over the past few years (exempting mortgage issues), or were never deeply in debt in the first place. Those who consolidated credit card and other installment loan debts by refinancing when the mortgage boom was on may be facing serious issues with that mortgage now, but that’s such a huge issue that if mortgage debt is the biggest of your worries, you’re doing pretty well.
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Filed under Debt, Economic Prognostication, Economic Recession, Energy, Fuel, Transportation | Comment (1)